It feels like there’s no break in sight for the Central US as the risk for severe weather continues today. Days of heavy rainfall have also exacerbated flooding in many areas in the Midwest and along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. Wet weather continues for the Northeast as well as flow brings storms and rain right up to the region through the end of the week, and likely into the weekend.

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of your Morning Briefing, where we’ll give you a quick rundown on everything you need to know weather-wise, every weekday morning. Let’s begin.

Severe Weather Continues to Batter Central US:

  1. Another day of severe weather is in store for the Central US today as a cold frontal passage provides lift for moist, unstable air that has remained in the region from yesterday.
  2. With steep lapse rates and relatively high instabilities, diurnal heating won’t be the deciding factor in this morning’s developing storms. Storms will begin to develop in the late morning to early afternoon, setting up over Central TX and moving eastward with the frontal boundary.
  3. Squall line development is also possible, but not completely certain at this time. Still, within developing systems, heavy rain, strong winds, and large hail are expected to be major threats with these storms as they move west to east across the region.
  4. The longevity of these storms is also uncertain as well, with some multi-cell storms or a squall line having a better chance of lasting well into the late afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, discrete cells will be much more likely to putter out mid-afternoon, with only some thunderstorms to rumble out through the end of the day.

Prolonged River Flooding along Mississippi and Missouri Rivers:

  1. As system after system makes its way over saturated grounds and overflowing rivers, flooding will plague much of the Central US well into the end of the week.
  2. With over 4″ having already fallen over some parts of the Southern Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley, flooding is already underway for many rivers and tributaries. There is moderate to major flooding for much of the Mississippi, Missouri, James, and Big Sioux Rivers which is forecasted to continue into at least Sunday as water flows downstream.
  3. Even more rain is on the way, likely to flood already saturated grounds around the Mississippi and Missouri River Valleys, northeastern TX, and parts of the Midwest. Up to 2 additional inches will fall over the region by Thursday night, making road and urban flooding an issue as well.

Several Rainy Days Ahead for the Northeast:

  1. With the current upper-air pattern, southwest winds around our blocking high will bring weather from the Central US and Midwest straight into the Northeast. Several rounds of rain, and even some marginal severe weather risk is in our near future as storms get flung our way.
  2. Later today, storms will eject from the Midwest and pass over the Northeast, with some risk for severe storms to bring strong winds and some small hail to OH, western PA, and even southwestern NY. Moderate to heavy rain will accompany these storms, with up to an inch of rain likely to fall over parts of the region overnight.
  3. Another round of (lighter) rain will pass through the region Thursday evening and Friday, again coming right out of the Midwest. Despite this, temperatures will remain relatively warm in the 60s and even low 70s for the Mid-Atlantic, and high 50s and low 60s for New England with high sky cover over most of the region through the weekend.
  4. More rain could be on its way this weekend as well, but there’s little consensus between models so we’ll have to wait until later in the week to be sure about timing and placement.

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Author

Kathleen is a Meteorologist at WeatherOptics, where she works writing content for the website, providing accurate and detailed forecasts to clients, and consulting on various meteorological projects. Kathleen earned her B.S. in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences in 2018 from Stony Brook University. Kathleen has also done research into our changing climate by investigating theRole of Atmospheric Rivers on Arctic Amplification in 2017.

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