Rain, chilly temps, and some late-season snow will continue today for the Northeast, but luckily be followed much warmer and drier weather later in the week. The Central US is not as lucky; the next few days will pass with only a few pop-up thunderstorms and showers. However, closer to the end of the week, another round of dangerous severe weather is ready to once again bring multiple hazards to the region.

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of your Morning Briefing, where we’ll give you a quick rundown on everything you need to know weather-wise, every weekday morning. Let’s dive right in.

Dreary Rain and Late-Season Snow:

  1. Our upper-level low, that’s currently moving out into the Gulf of Maine, will continue to affect the Northeast into tonight. Rain and showers will begin to taper off, and an accumulating late-season snowfall will continue over higher elevations.
  2. Temperatures 20-25 degrees below average for this time of year have combined with soaking rain the last three days for an overall dreary start to our week. This trend will continue tonight into tomorrow, with Wednesday hopefully being the last day we’ll wake up to chilling late-night lows.
  3. Continuous rain over the region has also reintroduced some coastal and river flooding risk. Parts of Southern New England will remain until a coastal flood advisory through the morning, while Lake Champlain and a significant portion of the Connecticut River have once again reached minor flood stages.
  4. Temperatures have been cold enough at high elevations in the White, Green, and parts of the Adirondack Mountains. 5-8″ is likely to accumulate over areas above 1500 ft, and parts of Western Maine below 1500 ft, up to 5″ is still possible. Further south, parts of VT, NH, and Upstate NY could see a coating-2″ of snow by the end of tonight.
  5. Tonight, our low pressure system will make its way further north into Canada, and precipitation will end south to north, before finally coming to an end sometime early Wednesday.

Significant Pattern Change on the Way:

  1. Days of gloomy weather will finally come to an end in the Northeast as a big pattern change is expected ahead. Low pressure aloft will soon be replaced with high pressure, bringing warmer and drier air into the end of the week.
  2. As Chief Meteorologist Josh Feldman explained in this week’s Sunday Storm, we are due for a major pattern change, especially over the East. Last week, high pressure to the south barraged the region with storms and showers from the Midwest, and this weekend, an amplified low pressure trough kept cold, wet weather in the area.
  3. As a potent perturbation in our northern stream passes tonight and tomorrow, flow will change, introducing much warmer air into the region. While a few spotty showers are expected through the end of the week, our new pattern will also favor overall drier conditions for the Northeast.

Severe Risk to Ramp Back up Again:

  1. The Central US is currently in the midst of a well-deserved break. The settled, tranquil weather that currently resides over the Central and Southern Plains won’t last forever. By the end of the week, a pattern will set up similar to last week’s, and some scattered to widespread severe risk is possible.
  2. Wednesday, we’ll see a potent storm move over the West Coast, bringing heavy rain and some high elevation snow over the Sierras. This storm will pass over the Rockies Thursday, bringing height falls and spinning up some storms over the Northern/Central Plains.
  3. By Friday, our upper-air pattern will have set up with an amplifying shortwave trough to the west and a blocking high over the Southeast. If this sounds familiar, it’s because it’s very similar to the same pattern we observed last week.
  4. Friday and Saturday hold the greatest chance for severe weather outbreaks, although there’s little predictability at this time due to how far out the forecast is.
  5. If strong severe thunderstorms do develop, all modes of severe weather are possible. This includes large hail, damaging high winds, heavy downpours, and some tornadoes. More updates will come as the week progresses.

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Kathleen is a Meteorologist at WeatherOptics, where she works writing content for the website, providing accurate and detailed forecasts to clients, and consulting on various meteorological projects. Kathleen earned her B.S. in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences in 2018 from Stony Brook University. Kathleen has also done research into our changing climate by investigating theRole of Atmospheric Rivers on Arctic Amplification in 2017.

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