The risk for severe weather as well as the chances for disastrous flooding continue over the Central US. As storms develop they will get pulled towards the Northeast, making it another wet and dreary week across most of the country.

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of your Morning Briefing, where we’ll give you a quick rundown on everything you need to know weather-wise, every weekday morning. Let’s dive right in.

Days of Severe Thunderstorms:

  1. The Central US cannot seem to catch a break, with at least three more days of severe weather ahead. Damaging winds, large hail, flooding rains, and dangerous tornadoes are all possible through Thursday, and could do some serious damage to many areas that have already been impacted by severe storms.
  2. Convection has died down this morning only to be resurrected by the clashing of contrasting air masses. Afternoon destabilization will cause very strong storms to form in the late afternoon around the TX and OK Panhandles as well as southwest KS.
  3. Storms developing this evening will likely last through the night, with a possible squall line forming in the early evening. Within discrete cell will be strong updrafts capable of producing dangerous tornadoes. Large hail and damaging winds are also possible within these storms, so it is important to heed any local warnings and watches and stay up-to-date on any new info throughout the night.
  4. Wednesday also poses a threat for severe weather over the region. Some storms likely will have lasted through the night, first weakening in the morning, but then strengthening once again due to daytime heating. These storms will likely last all the way into Wednesday night, with strong updrafts making them capable of producing hail the size of baseballs.
  5. Thursday is likely to hold more severe risk, but the exact details are yet to come. As our frontal boundary moves further east, so will our potential for severe storms.

Widespread Flood Risk:

  1. After receiving up to 10″ of rain over the last 7 days, it should be no surprise that soils are saturated and rivers are flooded throughout the Central US. Storms over the next few days will bring blinding downpours, up to 4 more inches of rain, and flash flooding to the region.
  2. Potent Gulf moisture will be propelled into developing storms over the next few days, providing plenty of precipitable water and energy. Today and Wednesday’s severe storms will come with very heavy rain, calling for a slight to moderate risk for excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Plains. Strong storms could produce rainfall of over 1″/hr.
  3. Flash flooding of roads will be an especially dangerous hazard today and tomorrow, as 2-4″ falls across the region. In addition, river flooding will be exacerbated greatly, with many parts and tributaries of the Mississippi, Missouri, Arkansas, and Red Rivers forecasted to reach moderate to major flood stage by Wednesday.

Rain and Gloom this Week for the Northeast:

  1. Similar to last week, our upper-air patterns will dictate what general direction the storms over the Central US move to, and they will continue to eject right into the Northeast. As two separate frontal systems move through as well, below average temperatures will make an already dreary week feel even worse.
  2. For those of you who love the rain, you’re certainly in luck this week. Later this afternoon, the first round of storms that developed yesterday will be carried by flow around our blocking high in the Southeast right to the Northeast.
  3. After a brief break from rain on Wednesday, showers will again build on Thursday before heavy rain moves through the entire region, soaking the ground in its path. Exact rainfall totals will depend on the strength of these storms that form over the next two days, but for now, flooding and severe weather do not seem to be much of a risk.

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Kathleen is a Meteorologist at WeatherOptics, where she works writing content for the website, providing accurate and detailed forecasts to clients, and consulting on various meteorological projects. Kathleen earned her B.S. in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences in 2018 from Stony Brook University. Kathleen has also done research into our changing climate by investigating theRole of Atmospheric Rivers on Arctic Amplification in 2017.

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