Once again, the Central US is in the spotlight with multiple threats on the way to the region. This weekend, the first of two potent severe weather threats will bring all modes of severe weather, including flash flooding, to most parts of the country east of the Rockies. For the East, a relatively quiet weekend lies ahead, but some thunderstorms may cause a few isolated issues.

Welcome to the Friday edition of your Morning Briefing, where we’ll give you a quick rundown on everything you need to know weather-wise, every weekday morning. Let’s dive right in.

First Round of Widespread Severe Weather this Weekend:

  1. Through Sunday, our first round of risk for widespread severe weather will spread across the country, east of the Rockies. All modes of severe weather can be expected this weekend, especially some flash and river flooding from heavy downpours within developing storms.
  2. As a short-wave trough perturbations ejects from the base of our quasi-stationary upper-level low, low pressure and height falls will spin up storms across the Plains and parts of the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and tonight.
  3. Storms will begin to pop-up this afternoon over the Northern/Central Plains and Mid-Atlantic, and likely last into this evening. Very strong storms centered over NE will have a high risk for very large hail, damaging winds, and even a pop-up thunderstorm or two.
  4. Further south, portions of TX will also be at risk for widespread severe weather today, with a more linear structure likely to form overnight. Meanwhile, a strong low-level jet will also increase chances for tornado formation over the area this evening.
  5. More storms are expected Saturday with a similar set-up but a different area of focus. A powerful squall line from Friday night will likely survive the night, restrengthening over the Lower Mississippi Valley throughout the day.

More Severe Risk over Plains Monday and Tuesday:

  1. Even more severe weather is expected early next week, peaking Monday and Tuesday. No major changes in our upper-air patterns will lead to continuous chances of severe weather after next Thursday.
  2. Another potent shortwave will eject from the trough base Monday, renewing concerns for scattered to widespread severe weather. Early next week, this risk will center over the Southern/Central Plains before moving east towards the Mississippi River Valley.
  3. Again, all modes of severe weather can be expected in these storms, but exact details are still unclear. Tuesday’s forecast especially will be dependent on how Monday plays out. And, with our blocking high to the Southeast and multiple short-wave troughs ejecting into the area, there’s a good chance for more risk Wednesday and Thursday as well.

Mostly Warm and Quiet for the East:

  1. As our blocking high over the Southeast once again takes residence, we’ll see a warmer, drier weather pattern settle in up and down the coast.
  2. While the Southeast will see mostly warm and dry weather, the Northeast will have a few storms to slightly dampen the weekend. Tonight, some showers may move through New England and NY, while the Mid-Atlantic is at a slight risk for severe weather development.
  3. Any developing severe storms will begin to pop-up in the afternoon, likely lasting into the evening, with the highest risk over Southern Ohio and extending southeast towards the Chesapeake.
  4. Before these storms weaken throughout the evening, they risk bringing high winds, toppling trees and causing some isolated power outages.
  5. After tonight, temperatures will warm significantly on Sunday and the weather should remain mostly dry, meaning a decent weekend lies ahead for the Northeast for the first time in weeks.

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Kathleen is a Meteorologist at WeatherOptics, where she works writing content for the website, providing accurate and detailed forecasts to clients, and consulting on various meteorological projects. Kathleen earned her B.S. in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences in 2018 from Stony Brook University. Kathleen has also done research into our changing climate by investigating theRole of Atmospheric Rivers on Arctic Amplification in 2017.

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