We’re in for a rainy weekend as unsettled weather keeps the Northeast warm and wet into the start of next week. For the Southern Plains, there is no rest in sight from severe thunderstorms, flash flooding, and river flooding. A quick peek into next week will reveal much of the same sensible weather and upper-air patterns.

Welcome to the Friday edition of your Morning Briefing, where we’ll give you a quick rundown on everything you need to know weather-wise, every weekday morning. Let’s begin.

Warm, Unsettled Weather Across the Northeast All Weekend:

  1. Two rainy systems will make their way into the Northeast this weekend. Above average temperatures combined with the rain and humidity will make for some gloomy, muggy weather the next few days.
  2. The first round of rain will come from what’s left of yesterday’s Central US storms. These remnants will still carry plenty of moisture, as well as enough energy and lift for some thunderstorms to develop as well.
  3. Saturday evening and Sunday will yield similar results. Rain moving in from the west will slowly spread over the region, only this time, with slightly cooler temperatures. This second system will move a bit slower through the region before finally making its way off the coast Sunday evening.
  4. Rainfall totals are not expected to be particularly high, with only up to 1-1.25″ expected. However, long duration rain could cause some minor road and urban flooding, especially in areas along the already flooding Connecticut River and other flood prone areas.

More Severe Thunderstorms East of the Rockies:

  1. Some remnants of last night’s storms still remain in parts of the Southeast, but will continue to putter out through the morning. The bigger story will come as a new shortwave trough moves in aloft, creating another round of severe storms this afternoon.
  2. Yet another southern stream perturbation will bring low pressure aloft, which ultimately will allow more lift over TX today. Daytime heating will steepen lapse rates, making air more unstable and lead to convective storms popping up in the mid-afternoon.
  3. These storms will likely be a mix of discrete cells, with some more linear formation occurring likely later in the afternoon. Discrete super-cell storms will likely have large hail and even be capable of producing a tornado. Any developing squall line would be much more likely to produce damaging straight-line winds that would cause significant damage over the affected area.

Similar Weather Patterns Next Week:

  1. After a stormy weekend, we’ll begin next week with a similar upper-air pattern to what we saw at the beginning of this week. Slowly, the pattern and its resulting sensible weather features will progress to seem almost like a repeat of this past week.
  2. Flow over the Eastern US will become more zonal as we head into the weekend, with Monday starting off almost completely zonal. Throughout the week, a longwave trough with several shortwave perturbations to the west will directly conflict with the blocking high over the Southeast.
  3. As a result of this clash, there will be some significant risk for severe weather to develop just over the Rockies, following flow northeastward. As a result of high and low pressure aloft, above average temperatures will be felt more significantly over the Southeast, while slightly below average temperatures will be felt over the Northwest and Northern Rockies.

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Kathleen is a Meteorologist at WeatherOptics, where she works writing content for the website, providing accurate and detailed forecasts to clients, and consulting on various meteorological projects. Kathleen earned her B.S. in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences in 2018 from Stony Brook University. Kathleen has also done research into our changing climate by investigating theRole of Atmospheric Rivers on Arctic Amplification in 2017.

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