Just when winter looks like it’s given up, we change months to March and the snow threats start piling on. We’re not tracking just one, but two different snow threats over the course of the next 84 hours. After both storms pass, many locations in the northeast will see their largest snow event this winter with totals from both systems likely dropping a widespread 6-12+ inches of snowfall from parts of Central PA to northern New England –– As of now, I-95 remains right on the cusp of the rain/snow line.
The first punch of winter comes tonight as a weak low pressure system that delivered light snow to southern PA lat night moves offshore and strengthens as it heads towards the 40/70 benchmark. As it does so, heavy precipitation will be thrown back towards the Southern New England coastline and run into colder air that’s already in place. As the coastal storm begins to move away, pressure is expected to drop below 1000 mb’s and a 6-8 hour period of very heavy snow over southeastern New England will be possible, just south and west of Boston. 6+ inches of snowfall is likely across this localized region.
While southern and southeastern New England will see the worst from the quick-hitting coastal storm with 4-8 inches likely across eastern CT, Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, accumulating snow will stretch well west into much of central and eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and New York City. For the most part totals will range from 1-4 inches for these locations.
Part 2 begins moving in early on Sunday for portions of the southern Plains and Midwest, as a large low pressure system quickly moves northeast and gains strength. While this system will be relatively fast moving, there will be loads of moisture associated with it, leading to moderate to heavy snowfall from St. Louis to State College. As the storm system strengthens, a swath of heavier snow is expected just away from the coast and the I-95 corridor. This is where we’re anticipating 6-12+ inches of snowfall, stretching from Scranton PA to northern New England. Some spots will see over a foot of snow by Monday when all is done. The worst of the storm for the Northeast should hit later on Sunday and into Monday.
It’s important to note that changes are still possible with the forecast above for Sunday and Monday. The progressiveness of the storm and location of the rain/snow line remains uncertain, with the potential for a colder system that brings heavier snow into I-95 still possible.
For the time being though, we’re fairly confident the heaviest swath of snow will still fall across interior eastern Pennsylvania, central New York, and central northern New England. Again, we believe 6-12+ inches is a rather safe call for this area. A colder solution with a track slightly further south though would move that heaviest swath of snow within just a few miles of the I-95 corridor, so this system still bears watching. Regardless, this early March storm system will likely be the biggest snowfall of the winter for many locations.
By late Monday the majority of the storm should be out of the region with fresh cold air to follow behind. We still have a few more opportunities for snow after this system before Spring moves in for good. Stay tuned.