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Jackson Dill

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Barry will continue to top the headlines this week as it transforms into an extratropical cyclone by midweek as it brings rain to the lower Mississippi River Valley all the way up to the Northeast. We’ll also be tracking extreme heat, a relatively dry weather pattern, and more in this week’s 4 Things to Watch. Barry’s Tropical Remnants: Barry is slowly moving further inland as it gradually transforms into an extratropical low pressure, which essentially means it will lose its tropical characteristics due to it moving over land. Despite this, heavy rain will continue to remain a threat this week. To start the week, the center of Barry will be located over Arkansas, bringing rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms to the region. As the week progresses, the rain will move toward the Ohio River Valley and eventually the Northeast by Thursday. The heaviest of totals will be focused in…

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two strengthened and organized into the second tropical storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season this morning. Barry has formed over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and will bring hurricane conditions to parts of Louisiana this weekend. Source: Tropical Tidbits Barry will continue to intensify slowly prior to landfall as the central low pressure deepens while moving over the very warm waters. Sea surface temperatures are in the mid 80s to low 90s across the region Barry is crossing, so that should help it strengthen. Wind shear is also weak for the most part, although the extreme eastern part of the storm is dealing with some shear. There is also the issue of dry air aloft across the northern half of the storm. If this persists, then that can prevent the storm from further strengthening. Despite this, however, the model guidance suggests an improvement in environment conditions…

We’ve been watching an area of disturbed weather, dubbed Invest 92L, the past few days as its chances for tropical development rise now to 90% within both the next 48 hours and 5 days. This is associated with a disturbance that began in the Plains and is now moving south of the Tennessee River Valley, taking an unusual path to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Now that the thunderstorms that Invest 92L is producing are moving over the Gulf of Mexico, tropical development will likely begin to take place. There are several ingredients required for a tropical cyclone to form. That includes very warm sea surface temperatures of at least 80°F and low wind shear. These warm ocean temperatures are guaranteed since they are already present, and it takes an extended amount of time for the temperature to drop or rise. Current sea surface temperatures in degrees Celsius across the…