Severe weather will definitely be dominating the headlines once again this week, especially as a likely severe weather and tornado outbreak takes place across the southern Plains this Monday. We’ll also be tracking rounds of storms in the Northern Tier and record heat in the Southeast in this week’s 5 Things to Watch.
Severe Weather Outbreak:
A severe weather outbreak is likely Monday across the southern Plains. The Storm Prediction Center is especially concerned about the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma, where there is the best chance for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Already this morning, storms are roaring across West Texas up through western Kansas along the dry line. Meanwhile by the late-morning, we should begin to see thunderstorms fire up near the warm front across Oklahoma. Central Oklahoma looks to be the most active area with one round of storms in the morning, then possibly up to 3 or 4 additional rounds Monday afternoon into the overnight. Now by this evening, there should be a brief break in terms of severe weather across much of the southern Plains, but by midnight we think the next round of strong storms will really crank up as a line, with embedded supercells, rapidly develops across West Texas. It’s also worth noting how these storms will be taking place at night which makes the threat even more dangerous.
We’ll have continuous updates on our Twitter, and look for another article this afternoon on this severe weather outbreak.
While an outbreak of severe weather takes place across the southern Plains through tonight, the Northeast will also need to watch out for strong storms, especially from western Maine through the mid Hudson River Valley. These storms will also be associated with a cold front and a low pressure system, the same low that brought severe weather to the central US last week. Now for much of the day it will be quiet with sun and clouds and a few spotty showers but by around noon, we’ll begin to watch a developing line of scattered storms form across northern New England back through central New York. This line will move east while strengthening, sweeping through the coast during the evening, making this a quick-moving line. We want to emphasize how scattered these storms will be. It won’t be this widespread line but instead it will be more hit or miss, especially in southern New England and the Tri-State Area. Damaging winds, small hail, and isolated tornadoes will be the risks associated with these storms.
A big dip in the jet stream associated with multiple upper-level lows will be the story across the West this week. With these dips in the jet stream, they often bring cooler air in from the north, making for below average temperatures. With moisture in place and freezing air above parts of the mountains, that will make for snow — and in some cases days of it — across the West. Throughout this entire week, the central and northern Rocky Mountains may deal with snow everyday, especially in Wyoming. Through Friday, a widespread 1-2+ feet will be possible in these areas. There will also be a separate storm that brings snow to the Sierra Nevada around the Tuesday time period, where over a foot fo snowfall can also be expected.
Downstream of that dip in the jet stream will be a large, building ridge of high pressure centered over the Southeast. Beginning Wednesday, an area of high pressure will become more organized and will intensify over the southeastern US and will remain dominant into the Memorial Day Weekend. This will make for widespread high temperatures into the 90s and 100s between Thursday and at least mid-next week. Even on Sunday and next Monday (Memorial Day), highs in the 90s may reach as far north as the Mason-Dixon Line and the Ohio River Valley. Not only will daily record high temperatures be broken in the Southeast, but all-time May record highs as well.
Wet Northern Tier:
With numerous disturbances and storms systems moving through the central US, the Northern Tier will find itself in the crosshairs of very active and unsettled weather this week. The low pressure responsible for the impending severe weather outbreak in the southern Plains Monday will bring widespread rain and thunderstorms the the northern Plains and Midwest midweek. Another storm will then follow behind, bringing more rains to the region this coming weekend. Inches of rain are on the way, which will likely lead to some flooding, especially along the rivers.