The tropics are beginning to get a bit more active as we track an Invest in the Atlantic as well as a tropical storm that may threaten Hawaii. This comes as heat impacts the Northeast early-week and summer storms affect the East Coast. We tracking all of this and more in this week’s 4 Things to Watch.
The National Hurricane Center has designated a new invest in the Atlantic “95L.” This is basically an area of disturbed weather that has the risk of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days. The chance is low at this time for full development, but 95L is worth watching due to its potential land impacts. Currently, the thunderstorms associated with this distance are located over the eastern Caribbean Sea, an area of the Atlantic basin where it’s generally rare for tropical cyclones to form. As it moves northwest and north of the Greater Antilles, however, that’s when we believe 95L has the greatest risk of developing. We’re not yet predicting development, but the Southeast US the Bahamas need to monitor this storm as the week progresses.
Tropical Storm Erick:
Meanwhile in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, there are two active tropical cyclones. This includes Tropical Storm Erick, which is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday evening. This storm is currently located near 12°N latitude — Hawaii is at about 20°N latitude. Erick is expected to track in a general west-northwest direction and may get closer to Hawaii later this week. The reason why we emphasized those latitudes is because storms that approach Hawaii from the southern side have the best chance of maintaining their strength due to the warmer waters, as opposed from the the west or north. Either way, Hawaii will need to monitor the progress of this storm as it nears the islands, likely as a tropical storm.
High temperatures will get around the 90 degree mark across the Northeast megalopolis early-week. The hottest temps will be found from New York City down through Richmond, as highs get into the low to mid 90s. Up into southern New England, temperatures will be closer to the upper 80s. Either way, temperatures will feel even hotter due to the moderate to high humidity levels. Tuesday is expected to be a couple degrees hotter, with a few more locations in New England topping off at the 90 degrees mark. Now as a cold front begins to move into the Northeast on Wednesday, temperatures will cool off inland while remaining hot near the Coast. This could actually end up being the hottest day of the week in the Boston area before the entire Northeast cools off, with temperatures returning closer to normal for the rest of the week.
A cold front moving east from the Plains toward the East Coast will be a focal point for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern US this week. At the start of the week, storms will be found from the Great Lakes down through the lower Mississippi River Valley. By Wednesday, however, the storms will reach the Northeast while the front stalls across the South, bringing hit or miss storms for the rest of the week across parts of the region. By Thursday the showers should move offshore, making for another dry stretch of weather north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Thankfully, severe weather is not expected with any of this week’s storms.